A-share valuation of the mall all: the valuation of the share reform since the central plenary down, is currently in the second trough, industrial capital to accelerate the appearance or will be out of the second valuation trough. No danger of interest rates, the risk of a premium and micro economic growth are the three basic elements affect the valuation. Since 1995 A-share valuation experienced two peak, trough, is currently in the second trough. 2010 A shares after the gradual elimination of the world's premium valuation, valuation levels are currently below the world. A share stock reform since Tobin's Q values continue to decline, the industrial capital through stock buybacks, business restructuring and mergers and acquisitions and other methods to speed up play, on the one hand bring incremental quality property, on the other hand to improve the efficiency of the stock of property, earnings improvement is expected to increase, then increase the A-share valuation levels.
The construction of the A-share valuation; history is certainly low relative ago, structural decomposition distinctive characteristics.
The construction of the A-share stock valuation lowest motherboard, followed by small plates, the GEM highest; infrastructure sector valuations minimum and maximum intelligence sector. 2014 年 月底 8 SW construction industry index PE / PB parting only 8.16 / 1.10, only 3% higher than the value of the former history since 1995; lower than the same period in all the A shares 11.69 / 1.73, and lower than comparable countries, the construction of the first estimate value level. The construction of the A-share valuation in April this year, the lowest level after the touch before history was weak carryover trend.
Construction valuation impact elements: the existence of a significant effect of dispersion effects and planning, PB PE ratio better reflect fundamentals. Construction industry valuation PE / PB model analysis of three elements: 1) the construction of sub-professional valuation is the primary factor affecting valuation of the company, the higher sub-occupation average valuation, valuation of the company is higher. (2) PE valuation by the current ROE big impact on the practice and theory direction opposite direction. Current ROE is higher, the lower the PE valuation. (3) PB valuation by the expected value of future second greatest impact on ROE, practice and theory affect the same direction as the direction. ROE common future expectations, the higher the second year the mall on the company, the higher the valuation.
(4) the existence of planning the construction industry, the valuation effect, the smaller the net property planning, the higher valuation.
Construction valuation mean reversion exists appearance: the long term, the construction of price-earnings ratio will converge to its intrinsic value. Rail City rail / hydro / garden project / steel structure stable earnings trend, randomness is weak. Housing construction / CCCC Bridge / professional engineering groups from the regression residuals have shaken effect, the valuation by large exogenous shocks. From a reasonable price-earnings ratio, the construction of all the current low valuation, housing construction / CCCC Bridge / professional engineering / hydro / railway city rail low valuation, the valuation of other sub-sectors with high price-earnings ratio of A shares representing all high contact big.
Valuation and construction activity Contact: long-term, risk-free interest rate and build ties valuation is not stable, M1, M2 growth rate is an important factor affecting the construction of the index valuation. From the sub-sector, the construction of intelligent and landscape engineering valuation activity influenced by short-term.
Construction valuation and shopping mood: "double low" and "double high" coexist. The primary value of the construction industry is subject to double contempt microscopic layers downward cycle and career cycle impact, dual high valuation is the primary expectations of higher growth of new shopping malls career. Let's analysis indicated, the construction of traditional companies through business restructuring and mergers and acquisitions and other industrial capital can quickly improve valuation.
Funded proposition: to build a key priority to improve the professional valuation includes micro-economic stabilization, non-hazardous rates down, state-owned enterprise reform, the industrial capital of appearances, the construction company in transition, such as Shanghai and Hong Kong is coming through. Child advocate was arrested two professional equipment: (1) Growth: high valuations of small sub-professional planning company, points recommended intellect city (DAS Intelligence / Yanhua Smartech), design consulting (Su pay Branch), environmental engineering (three-dimensional works), the World project (the workers of the world), decorative garden (Asian shares / Hirota shares / gold Mantis / Pubang garden) and so on. (2) Value: emphasis has SOE reform, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring the expected value of blue-chip contempt. Recommended point Chinese built, Anhui Water Resources, Guangdong hydropower, authentic shares, China Haicheng and so on.
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